US Open Golf Betting Preview: Finding A winner

Finding a formula to predict a potential US Open winner this year will need a hybrid approach if history is anything to go by. So, let’s look at the pros and cons ahead of the year’s third Major.

A big advantage would be that we head to a familiar course – Torrey Pines (South) in California. It’s a famous venue – all we need to do is look back to 2008 when Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate “on one leg” – that is a regular host of the Farmers Insurance Open. The fact that we know so much about the course and the calibre of its past champions is a major boost in the bid to create a shortlist of winners.

“How do you get prepared to get punched in the face? You just don’t. You just have to deal with it.”

Brutal honesty from 3x champion on what it takes to win the title.

— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf)

The downside is the fact that the tournament will not be played under the same conditions as when the PGA TOUR visits the track. Instead, it will be firmer, faster and longer. And don’t forget that the organisers will do more to penalise wayward drives.

So you have to take the good with the bad.

Trying to marry the combination of what we know about the course and its history with what we know about US Open winners does actually help narrow the list. It won’t be a bomber’s paradise but longer hitters will have a quicker route to the green. And it won’t out and out favour those with deadly accuracy but are shorter hitters. You see … it will require a mix and match approach.

Recent Farmers Insurance Open winners include Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, Jason Day (x2), Justin Rose and Jon Rahm.

That’s an elite list of players often spoken about when it comes to a potential Major winner.

Recent US Open winners include Brooks Koepka (x2), Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth.

Now let’s try to match up similarities in trying to find a winner for the event which starts on 17 June.

The winner is likely to be inside the world’s top 40, have credentials as a top player over a number of seasons and is either an elite all-round player (Spieth, Rahm, Reed etc tick all the boxes) or one of the longest on tour but blessed with a solid short game (the likes of Brooks and DJ fall into this category).

So with that in mind, here are three players tipped to do well at Torrey Pines.

Jon Rahm – Many might skip Rahm for the big week because of his recent Covid-19 positive test result. The enforced break though might do him well. Rahm is a fiery Spaniard and showed at the Memorial that he is ready to win consistently. He’s the favourite for a reason.

Xander Schauffele – Another first time Major winner in the making. He was second in this year’s Farmers but has fared really well in Majors since his breakthrough season in 2016. An all-rounder for the big occasion.

Patrick Reed – Will attempt to match Tiger Woods’ feat by winning a regular tour event and a Major at the same venue in a single year. He has 3 Top 10s since the Masters and ticks all the boxes.