GOLD CUP 2019: RACE SCHEDULE AND TIPS
With the 2018/19 racing season drawing to a close, Super Saturday at Greyville on 27 July makes sure we go out with a bang.
With no less than 8 Graded races, the final weekend of the racing season can arguably compete with Durban July day. Perhaps not in social stature, but the high calibre of racing on offer certainly merits recognition.If you’re heading down to the track to soak up the Durban winter sun, things kick off at 12 noon, with two mediocre affairs. The real action kicks off in Race 3 at 13:50, and runs throughout the day, before two Listed races close the season out.
We’ve run through the card and given you our usual blitz preview and tips for each race.
Click on each race to reveal our preview and tips
Race 1
The day starts off with a juvenile plate; basically a 2-year-old race, where the more races a horse has won, the more weight it carries. The spread of ability is expected to be quite wide in this, as reflected in the betting.
Tip: – Unfortunately it’s tough to look for value in this race past the short-priced favourite. 2-year-olds can always spring a surprise, but this colt’s two wins from two starts warrants favouritism. His last win over 1600m showed the extra distance should suit, and there is no evidence of others being more qualified to see out the 1900m. Anton Marcus is the highest stakes earner in the country this season; a notable jockey booked for top trainer Mike de Kock.
Race 2
The second of the curtain raiser is a handicap over 2000m. Horses are weighted based on their ratings in the effort to try make the race as even as possible. Unlike Race 1, this takes place on the artificial polytrack.
Tip: – Unlike our pick in Race 1, this is a little left field. This gelding carries bottom weight, and the rules of the race include apprentice jockey weight allowances. Jason Gates gets the ride, and the horse has the best course and distance stats in the race. You’ll be getting long odds, so a small each-way bet is our play here.
Race 3 - Debutante (Grade 2)
The first Grade 2 race of the day, this is where the serious business starts. This is reserved for 2-year-old fillies, with no weight allowances handed out. As mentioned, 2-year-olds can be hard to pick, so we’re going to find some value instead of siding with favourites.
TIP: – This is a filly thats flown under the radar since winning its maiden by a whooping 7 lengths. Last time out it ran 4th, just 1.5 lengths off the winner in a hot Grade 1 sprint. She’s well-rested and will hopefully last the 1200m. Warren Kennedy is in hot form and has elected to ride her, which commands respect. Expect a decent price, and have an each-way bet.
Race 4 - Umkhomazi Stakes (Grade 2)
Another tricky 2-year-old affair over 1200m, this time a mix of boys and girls. The preference generally goes to the boys who tend to mature a little earlier in their career. There are some that have put up cracking runs to date, and that form must be respected. It’s the opening of the Pick 6, so you’ll have your work cut out nailing down picks to see you through the next 6 races.
TIP: – We’re siding with the De Kock/Marcus combination again, although this time at a more attractive price. African Warrior seems the horse to beat, but its drawn wide and the 1200m could be a tad short. There is some collateral form between the two, and we fancy a turnaround a form based on the vastly better draw.
Race 5 - Thekweni Stake (Grade 1)
The first Grade 1 of the day. This race allows for the best 2 year old miler to fight it out. There’s one stand out pick according to the bookies, but we’re not convinced. It’s the first leg of the Jackpot, so any early Pick 6 exits could double down on the next 4 races.
TIP: – We tipped it on Durban July day, and it came oh so close to winning, finishing 2nd 0.70 lengths behind Cockney’s Pride. They meet again in this race, along with a couple of others. We still think we have the right horse. The standout favourite according to the bookies finished 3rd that day. The race is an extra 200m which should help, despite the bad draw. 2nd time’s a charm?
Race 6 - Premier Champions Stakes (Grade 1)
The second Grade 1 for 2 year olds over the mile. This race tends to draw the cream of the crop, but theres a stand out favourite that has been a punter’s friend in exotic the last two major race days its featured.
TIP: – We tipped this one on July and it did not disappoint. It’s appears all class, with a bright future ahead. Lyle Hewitson retains the ride, and it’s in search of it’s fourth straight win and a second Grade 1. The field looks as competitive as it has handled up until now, and if it can see out the 1600m, the script looks to be written already. Pick 6 banker? Yeah, why not.
Race 7 - Gold Cup (Grade 1)
The poster race for the day – a Grade 1 open race over a whopping 3200m. Not many races exist at this level and distance in the country. Trainers that have horses capable of making the trip see it as the race to aim for. It’s the absolute best way to cap off another season of racing.
TIP: – This 5-year old ran 5th in last year’s edition, just 2.80 lengths off the winner. It’s gone from strength to strength and has so much experience in big races that it seems a 2nd Graded race victory is imminent. Races over this distance tend to throw up mixed results, so there’s usual value abound if you find the winner.
Race 8 - Mercury Sprint (Grade 1)
This could be the pick of the Grade 1’s on the day, a weight-for-age sprint over 1200m. With weight being given to younger horses, the top weights need to be head and shoulders above the rest to win. Whilst Kasimir is a deserving favourite, we’re going to be the usual advocate for better weighted contenders to chase him down.
TIP: – We could be arriving for the funeral after brassing her on July day, but she comes into the race as the best weighted horse. When you run in top class company, this can often be the advantage needed. Currently at 6/1, she’s looking for a hat-trick of Grade 1’s, and Lyle Hewitson retains the ride to attempt this feat.
Race 9 - Champions Cup (Grade 1)
The build up to this race has seen a heated battle for favouritism between Durban July fancy, Rainbow Bridge, and comeback kid, Buffalo Bill Cody. The former comes with proven race pedigree, whilst the latter carries more talk than walk. This weight-for-age contest is similar to the previous race, albeit over 1800m. With the attention on the top 2, we’re fancying another lesser hyped hero to take the prize.
TIP: – This highly rated 3-year old seems to have been intentionally rested for July day. For a classy colt like this, you have to feel its been aimed at this season ending Grade 1; which would be it’s 4th should it win. Without going into the other contenders chances, Anton Marcus has opted to ride it, and it seems like this trip will suit its natural progression to 1800m as a 4-year-old next season. Win or lose, its going to be the race of the day.
Race 10 - Gold Bracelet (Grade 2)
This Grade 2 over 2000m, see a lot of Durban July runners setup for a rematch, as well as some who wouldn’t have had the class to make the Grade 1 final field. At 200m shorter than July distance, it opens the race up to a wider range of contenders.
TIP: – This 4-year-old found the 2200 Durban July distance a bit far, and faded to finished 5 lengths of the winner. Whilst other runners like Miyabi Gold and Camphoratus finished closer on the day, we’re fancying the local experience of Dennis Drier and Sean Veale to bring home the bacon for us.
Race 11
This listed handicap could be the ‘get out of jail’ race for punters having a bad day. It’s worth checking for market movers, but otherwise some form studying can yield the results you’re looking for in this one.
TIP: – The hot combination of Justin Snaith and Richard Fourie should speak for itself. Its drawn in pole position, ideal for the 1600m trip at Greyville, and it’s last run on July Day was a merited 2nd behind a well-fancied winner. It baulked in-running and if not interferred with, could be in the winner’s box come Saturday evening.
Race 12
The last of the day is a 1000m handicap sprint featuring some very decent runners. The handicapping across ages and sexes in short races can make all the difference, and we’re hoping to find another rough results to end the day on a high.
TIP: – A few of these runners competed in an early race on July, and based on the results of that are rematching on different weights. We tipped Basilius, who won that race, but now comes under sufferance, which all but blows it’s chances here. Fillipo was another we fancied, and despite running 1.5 lengths behind, now has the weight turnaround in its favour. It goes up against more experience contenders, but a clear run in this time should give him all the chances to win.
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