Brazil v Argentina – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Brazil host Argentina at the Maracanã in the Copa America final in the early hours of Sunday morning. Lionel Messi is chasing his first major honour with his country and looking to end a 28-year drought for La Albiceleste in the Copa America having lost on penalties to Chile in both 2016 and 2017. Messi has lost in the Copa America final on three occasions and comes up against a Brazil side looking to defend their 2019 crown against their bitter rivals.

The Seleção are in very strong form with 11 wins and one draw from their last 12 matches in World Cup qualifying and the Copa America. Their last defeat was to Argentina in a friendly in 2019 in Saudi Arabia. Their defensive record of late has been outstanding with eight clean sheets in their last ten matches.

Brazil made light work of the group stage as they beat Venezuela 3-0, Peru 4-0 and Colombia 2-1 with eight different players scoring their nine goals (Neymar scored twice). They then drew 1-1 with Ecuador as they took the chance to rest several players.

The knockout rounds have seen 1-0 victories against Chile in the quarter-final and 1-0 against Peru in the semi-final. Lucas Paquetá scored both goals with the victory against Chile mightily impressive as Brazil played the final 42 minutes with ten men after a red card for Gabriel Jesus.

Brazil Team News

Tite will be without Gabriel Jesus for the final after his red card in the quarter-final rules him out due to suspension. Richarlison took that centre forward role for the semi-final and should keep his place with Roberto Firmino left on the bench.

The rest of the side looks very settled with veteran Thiago Silva starting at centre back in preference to Real Madrid’s Eder Militao and Man Utd’s Fred keeping Douglas Luiz and Fabinho out.

Brazil Motivation

Brazil will be hugely motivated in front of their own fans. They have a superb front four of Richarlison, Neymar, Paqueta and Everton and are capable of being very attacking but they can also defend solidly as shown with ten men in the quarter-final.

Tite has a very good bench to call upon and has also been keen to add extra defenders and defensively midfielders to protect leads in the second half. If Brazil score first, they will be very difficult to break down.

Argentina Form

Since losing the 2019 Copa America semi-final to Brazil, Argentina are unbeaten in 19 matches. Things have been a grind at times with eight draws in those matches and three at home in World Cup qualification.

Their 2021 Copa America has been largely impressive. They dominated Chile (1.99 to 0.94 on Expected Goals) but could only draw 1-1 in their opener before very solid displays to beat Uruguay and Paraguay 1-0. A 4-1 thrashing of Bolivia completed the group stage. Their quarter-final saw a 3-0 cruise against Bolivia (2.31 to 1.20 on xG) before a very tight semi-final was won on penalties after a 1-1 draw with Colombia. Emi Martinez saved three penalties in the shootout.

Argentina Team News

Lionel Scaloni has been playing a 4-3-3 shape and has several big selection decisions to make. Centre back Cristian Romero is racing against time to be fit so German Pezzella could start again. The coach has to decide between Marcos Acuna of Sevilla and Ajax’s Nicolás Tagliafico at left-back.

Further forward, PSG’s Leandro Paredes is set for a recall in central midfield against club teammate Neymar, whilst both Angel Di Maria and Sevilla’s Papu Gomez are pushing hard to start down the left in preference to Nico Gonzalez.

Argentina Motivation

It’s fair to say that the entire Argentina side is massively motivated to win this final for their country and for teammate Lionel Messi. Goalkeeper Emi Martinez even said he wants to win it more for his teammate than for even himself as the legendary forward runs out of time to lift a major international honour.

Expect a very aggressive and physical Argentina approach with plenty of fouls and gamesmanship – whatever it takes to win. Should they need a goal, Sergio Aguero can be called upon from the bench.

Key Stats

Brazil have won 12 of their last 13 matches (D1)

Brazil have conceded 2 goals in their last 10 matches with 8 clean sheets

Brazil have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches

Messi has 4 goals and 5 assists in this year’s Copa America

Neymar has scored 7 goals in his last 10 Brazil matches

Argentina have drawn 4 of their last 8 matches

Argentina are 19 matches unbeaten (W11, D8)

Argentina have won just 8 of their last 34 matches against Brazil (D7, L19)

Argentina have failed to win in their last 7 competitive matches (non-friendlies) vs Brazil (L5, D2)

Prediction

This is set to be a very intense and hard-fought match. Argentina have Messi in great form and a squad desperate to win for their captain. Brazil are a more stable and consistent team, are playing at home and are seven competitive matches (WC qualifiers, Copa America and FIFA Confederations Cup) unbeaten against Argentina. Messi’s best chance may be a draw and this match going to penalties.