Club World Cup: Quater-Finals Preview

The Round of 16 produced some surprising results, with Manchester City and Champions League finalists Internazionale knocked out. The two teams had won their groups coming into the knockout stages and were considered favourites to progress, but Al Hilal and Fluminense had other ideas. While Al-Hilal edged City in a high-scoring thriller, Fluminense’s 2-0 result was more straightforward. All of a sudden, the tournament looks a bit more unpredictable. Will there be more surprises in the Quarter-Finals?

Quarter Final 1: Fluminense v Al Hilal

The Saudi Arabian side Al-Hilal is considered the favourite for this tie. Not only are they (70th) higher ranked than Fluminense (149th) on OPTA’s global rating, but the gap is significant (79 places). The Blue Waves (as they are otherwise known) were efficient against City, scoring with four of their six shots on target. That result made it nine games unbeaten since the start of May for them. Yet, they come up against a side that is also in form – Fluminense, who eliminated Sundowns in the Group stages. The Brazilians are unbeaten in 10 games themselves and will be keen to keep that going.

Team to progress bet: Al Hilal
Value bet: Both teams to score

Quarter Final 2: Chelsea v Palmeiras

The only remaining English team, Chelsea, will face one of Brazil’s two representatives on Saturday early in the morning. In some circles, Chelsea are now considered favourites to win the competition. OPTA’s predictor gives them a higher chance than any other team. This does not necessarily mean they are the best side, but it has to do with a simpler route to the final. They are the strongest team in the half of the draw that has no other European opponent. Yet, Palmeiras will be no pushovers. The Brazilians have proved difficult to beat in the last few months, keeping 10 clean sheets in 14 games.

Team to progress bet: Chelsea
Value Bet: Chelsea to score less than 1.5 goals

Quarter Final 3: PSG v Bayern Munich

The third quarter-final sees PSG clash with Bayern Munich on Saturday evening. The European champions are slight favourites here, but even they know this won’t be a straightforward tie. Both teams suffered defeats in the Group stages, but it is Bayern who have been less secure in their games. They needed late winners against both Boca Juniors and Flamengo, and have conceded at least once in each of their last three games. No one would complain if this game were the final, reminiscent of their 2020 UCL final behind closed doors. Despite being favourites here, PSG have lost each of their last four games against Bayern. That will probably give the Germans extra confidence, but will it be decisive?

Team to progress bet: PSG
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals

Quarter Final 4: Real Madrid v Dortmund

Like the third quarter-final, this is also a repeat of a recent Champions League final. In 2024, Madrid beat Dortmund 2-0 at Wembley in a tightly fought UCL showpiece. Indeed, Madrid has won three of the four meetings between the sides. That said, Dortmund are a team in form, having won nine of their last 10 games across all competitions. Madrid are considered favourites to progress past this stage, with a 60% chance given to them compared to 40% for Dortmund. All eyes were on Vini Junior, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe heading to this event, but Gonzalo Garcia has been influential for Los Blancos, and is the only player in the competition with a goal involvement in every game.

Team to progress: Madrid
Value bet: Garcia to score