Mamelodi Sundowns v Orlando Pirates – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Mamelodi Sundowns host Orlando Pirates at Loftus Stadium on Thursday in the quarter-finals of the Nedbank Cup. These two sides have played out five very tight clashes in a row with just two goals over those meetings. Masandawana are defending their trophy from last season which formed part of a domestic treble whilst Orlando Pirates ended a six year trophy drought by lifting the MTN8 in December.

Sundowns Form

Having lost their opening match of the 2020-21 season, Sundowns embarked on a 28 match unbeaten run. That streak was ended in their second last match as a complacent performance saw a 2-0 home defeat to Belouizadad in a CAF Champions League dead rubber. Downs responded with a 2-1 win at Chippa United in their last match.

Downs’ unbeaten run saw 20 wins and eight draws and a massive 16 clean sheets. That included a 1-0 win against Pirates in January. Perhaps the only question mark over recent matches has been conceding in four of their last five games in all competitions.

Sundowns Team News

Sundowns have rotated their side in recent CAF Champions League matches with nothing to play for, but their PSL XI is pretty settled. With Andile Jali out injured, Sphelele Mkhulise and Aubrey Modiba have been handed more minutes in the midfield alongside Rivaldo Coetzee and Lebohang Maboe.

Up front, Kermit Erasmus is expected to miss out and Gaston Sirino is doubtful but Sibusiso Vilakazi is fit again to boost options. The one big question mark for the head coaching duo is over who replaces the suspended Lyle Lakay at left back. Tebogo Langerman has been out of favour whilst Modiba is less adept defensively. The safest bet could be recalling Ricardo Nascimento with Mosa Lebusa moving to fullback.

Sundowns Motivation

In order of priority, the Nedbank Cup is below the league and CAF Champions League. Downs have a busy schedule and if they win, they face TTM in the semi-final on Sunday. If they lose, they will take on Maritzburg United in a league catchup match on the same day.

Despite this being third in terms of importance, Downs’ good situation in the league (six points clear with two matches in hand) and the CAF Champions League quarter-finals being five weeks away means they can fully focus on this match. Expect them to try to dominate possession and attack but sit back if leading and ask Pirates what they are made of against a reinforced defence.

Pirates Form

Bucs have been in good form of late with nine wins in their last 13 matches with eight clean sheets during that run. The caveat is that just five of those games have been in the league with some favourable cup matches against lower league opposition or in the CAF Confederations Cup during that time.

Their last five league matches have seen three wins and just two goals conceded, but they’ve failed to win any of their last six PSL matches when conceding the first goal and they’ve also drawn 1-1 on three occasions in 2021 having led 1-0 in league action. Their last six matches in all competitions have seen two three-goals hauls but also three blanks fired.

Pirates Team News

Pirates have plenty of injury concerns. Thulani Hlatshwayo missed the last match with a stomach bug whilst Thabang Monare was injured on international duty and has missed the last two games. There are a couple of big question mark positions with Kabelo Dlamini not certain to be trusted to start as a number ten.

If Monare is fit, Dlamini looks likely to drop to the bench but even without the latter, Josef Zinnbauer could play Siphesihle Ndlovu for greater defensive cover. Ntsikelelo Nyauza or Abel Mabaso would play at right back.

The other area is up front as there does not appear to be space in this sort of match for both Tshegofatso Mabasa and Gabadinho Mhango, so a tough choice has to be made. Thembinkosi Lorch may be declared fit but surely won’t start. In goal, Wayne Sandilands will start again if Richard Ofori does not recover in time.

Pirates Motivation

Pirates are realistically out the title race whilst they don’t play a continental match for another month. All attention will be on trying to lift a second domestic trophy of the season.

Bucs’ general style is to play at a very high intensity and the 6pm kickoff time will allow that. Expect very fast transitions and counter attacks but with a careful structure defensively (for example, three genuine central midfielders or natural centre back Nyauza at right back) to limit space for Sundowns’ interplay. If trailing, Zinnbauer will throw on additional attackers in a risky structure to try to turn the match.

Key Stats

Sundowns have won 11 of their last 14 matches

Downs have seen both teams scoring in 6 of their last 9 matches

Sundowns have lost 1 of their last 16 home matches (W11, D4)

The last 5 matches between these sides have seen under 1.5 goals

Pirates have won 9 of their last 12 matches (D3, L1)

Bucs have kept 9 clean sheets in their last 13 matches

Orlando Pirates have seen under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 13 matches

Prediction

This is an extremely difficult match to call. It is more likely to be tight and cagey as the old days of Orlando Pirates playing an open match that suited Sundowns are long gone. A draw is the best bet in 90 minutes.