Orlando Pirates v Kaizer Chiefs – Tactical Preview by Laduma Analytics

As ownerships and the status of teams change every couple of seasons, one part of the season stays consistent – the Soweto derby. It is arguably one of the biggest rivalries on the African continent and unfortunately will again have to take place without fans in attendance. The last meeting between the two sides was the MTN semi-finals where Orlando Pirates brushed five goals to nothing past a poorly organised Kaizer Chiefs side.
Since then, Amakhosi have turned their fortunes around and currently sit seventh on the log, four points behind their rival. Laduma Analytics looks into how both teams have been performing of late as they continue to climb the table.

This game will bring both teams to 15 DSTV Premiership games played this season, exactly the half-way point for this respective season. Who has done better up to now? Looking at the form table above, Pirates under coach Josef Zinnbauer started the season relatively strongly with nine out of an available 15 points (after five games) and a triumphant MTN trophy for the cabinet.

However, they have not quite been able to keep that momentum going and that may be due to the busy fixture list or injuries. Nonetheless, the team is on average picking up points at a rate that over the years has been good enough to finish within the Top 4. Their creative and attacking numbers are good, yet they have to find some way of converting these dangerous opportunities on a more regular basis.

The Glamour Boys on the other hand had fortunes go quite the other way at the start of the season. They struggled to score goals and leaked more goals than they would have liked at the back. At one point in December, the team were so low down the table, their results suggested they were performing on par with teams who ended up being relegated. The results in January (3W, 2D and 1L) however have turned the team onto a road of greener pastures. In addition, throw in the return of the prolific goal scorer Samir Nurkovic, a few personnel rotations and the team seems to be in a position where Hunt knows what works and what does not.

Attacking

Despite the busy month that January 2021 has become for all teams in the league, there is a stark contrast between the two in terms of attacking creativity and efficiency (minus data for matches played on 26th Jan as data was not available yet). The Buccaneers for example have a very low goal conversion percentage score of 7%, whereas the average in football lies around 10%. As previously discussed, Pirates have no problem creating multiple dangerous opportunities per game, they just struggle to put the chances away. This can be shown by the vertical shot map.

There are lots of attempts from within the box, especially on the left-hand side, possibly indicating the areas where Hotto, Lorch and Pule like to play. The team based on the map are also extremely wasteful with chances, especially with shots which were taken from distance. These generally have a very limited chance of threatening the opposition goalkeeper and thus would be considered wasteful.

Chiefs on the other hand have scored all of their goals from within the danger area of the box where the chances have the highest rate of being successful. Their conversion rate is also bang on the mark, whilst the only downside is their willingness to shoot from distance. Shots from these locations, (outside the box) based on the circumstances would most likely have been better utilised to find and create chances closer to goal.

Interestingly, both teams are considered to have under-performed their xG metric by 6-7 goals thus far, meaning that they have been able to create dangerous opportunities, but the efficiency has been missing. You just have to go back to match day two when Chiefs took 20 shots at the Chippa United goal and only scored once.