PSL 2019/2020 PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

 

In order to create a somewhat accurate predictive model, three metrics were used: odds which were used as an estimate of the team’s strength (lower value, greater strength), match location (home or away) and last season’s final position. Once these values were finalised, I ran 1000 simulations and aggregated the results which follow below.

Results A: Excluding last year’s final positions

I decided to run two different simulations. One excluding last year’s final table positions and one including them. For the former, the simulation follows directly from the betting odds.

Mamelodi Sundowns ended up first a staggering 45% of the time, with Orlando Pirates coming first 28% of the time. Another thing worth noting is how tight the relegation fight is predicted to be, keeping on trend with recent seasons. Surprisingly, Black Leopards are favourites for the drop.

Results B: Including all three metrics

The picture is a bit different when you factor in last year’s performances. Mamelodi Sundowns are favourites to win at an even higher percentage, perhaps highlighting how dominant the team has been over the past couple of years.

Polokwane City are dark horses and ended up going all the way 1% of the time. On the other end of the table, Stellenbosch FC were relegated 43% of the time, with Black Leopards and Baroka FC following closely behind.

Overall position breakdown

Lastly, I compiled a table showing the frequency with which each team finished in a certain position. Looking at this, we see Kaizer Chiefs finished most frequently in 6th position with Golden Arrows finishing most often in 10th position.

For the most part, it seems like the real battles will be for positions 3–7 and 10–14. It will be very interesting to see if the actual results follow this model.