We’ve teamed up with , who is well-known in South Africa’s punting streets and he will give us his best for the week. Europe’s elite club competition is back and it usually promises two things: goals and favourites to win. Let’s have a look at this week’s fixtures.
Malmo v Chelsea – Chelsea to score over 1.5 goals
Chelsea enter this game in fine form, having won their last six games, including a penalty shootout victory over Southampton. They scored 19 goals over this run, which included a 4-0 win over Malmo at home. Malmo lost all three UCL games, conceding 11 goals.
Juventus v Zenit – Over 1.5 goals
Juventus are in a mini-dip right now, having lost their last two matches. Zenit, meanwhile, recovered from three successive defeats with a 7-1 and 4-1 win in their domestic league. Even though the first leg, ended 1-0 for Juventus, this rematch should have more goals.
Wolfsburg v Salzburg – Over 1.5 goals
Salzburg could actually qualify for the last 16 if things go well tonight. But goals should be a saver bet. Salzburg’s last 12 games had at least two goals, while Wolfsburg’s last nine games saw over 1.5 goals, too.
Atalanta v Man United – Over 0.5 FHGs
As the first match between the two sides has shown, this game could go either way. Betting on goals should be the saver option and one first-half goal offers good value.
Bayern v Benfica – Bayern win -1 handicap*
Bayern Munich recovered from their shock 5-0 DFB Pokal exit against Gladbach with a 5-2 win over Union Berlin on the weekend. That 5-0 defeat was a warning shot and Bayern will continue to dominate. They won the first leg 4-0 away from home and tonight’s game could end similar.
*safer option is to just go for a Bayern win or over 0.5 FHGs
Villarreal v Young Boys – Over 0.5 FHGs
It’s another game that promises goals, Villarreal won the first match 4-1. Young Boys have only won two of their last six games and conceded 13 goals over this run, while Villarreal also just won two of their last six matches, conceding 12 goals.
Sevilla v Lille – Sevilla win/draw & under 4.5 goals
Sevilla have only lost one game all season, while Lille are struggling to find their form from 2020/21 when they won Ligue 1. Only one of Sevilla’s 14 games had over 4.5 goals and only one of Lille’s 16 matches saw more than five goals or more.
Real Madrid v Shakhtar – Over 0.5 FGHs
Real Madrid thrashed Shakhtar 5-0 in the reverse fixture but still have the odd surprise result this season. Both teams are scoring freely, though, and this game should have at least one goal in the first half.
Manchester City v Brugge – Man City over 1.5 goals
Manchester City will be out for blood after losing to Crystal Palace on the weekend. They beat Brugge 5-1 away from home and it could be a similar scoreline in the reverse fixture. It’s another game that could have at least one FHG, but I picked over 1.5 City goals here.
Dortmund v Ajax – Over 1.5 goals
Dortmund were hammered 4-0 in Amsterdam in the reverse fixture. However, they’ve won their following three Bundesliga games, while Ajax somewhat surprisingly dropped points on the weekend. This game should have goals. 14/16 BVB games had over 1.5 goals this season and 13/15 Ajax games had over 1.5 goals as well.
Liverpool v Atletico Madrid – Liverpool win/draw & over 1.5 goals
Liverpool are still unbeaten this season, having won 11/15 games and all of them had at least two goals. Atletico have won just four of their last 10 matches and were defeated 3-2 by Liverpool in the reverse fixture. 7/8 Atletico games had at least two goals
Sheriff v Inter – Inter win/draw & over 1.5 goals
Inter beat Sheriff in the reverse fixture but the hosts started with two wins against Shakhtar and Real Madrid in the competition. As a consequence, Inter needs points in the away clash as well, if they want to make the knockout rounds. 11/13 Inter games had over 1.5 goals this season.
Sporting v Besiktas – Over 1.5 goals
Besiktas are on a bad run, having won just three of their last 10 games and conceded 21 goals over this run. Sporting beat them 4-1 in Turkey and will aim for another win after starting the group with defeats to Dortmund and Ajax. They did win eight out of their last nine games.
PSG v Leipzig – Over 1.5 goals
PSG have won 13 of their 16 games this season, even though they often don’t look too great, as Mauricio Pochettino is still trying to get Lionel Messi firing. The Argentine might miss this game, which promises goals. PSG had over 1.5 goals in 14/16 games this season, Leipzig had over 1.5 goals in 11 of their last 12 games.