Chelsea vs Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Chelsea face Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. A 1-1 draw in the first leg left the tie in the balance as Chelsea know that a clean sheet will take them to their third Champions League final. Madrid were missing some big players in the first leg and should they return, then confidence will be high that they can reach yet another final under Zinedine Zidane.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea are playing very well of late with a solid clean sheet-first approach seeing the side moving closer to securing a top four finish and reaching the FA Cup final by beating Man City in the semi. There have been some disappointing results in recent weeks too though including losing 5-2 with ten to West Brom, losing 1-0 to Porto and drawing 0-0 at home with Brighton.

Considering their performance in the first leg in Madrid, a 1-1 draw left some regret for The Blues. They won 2-0 against Fulham over the weekend before the two ties to keep momentum going and rest some players. In the big matches, Chelsea have been superb under Thomas Tuchel as Tottenham, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid (twice), Porto and Man City have been beaten with clean sheets to boot.

Chelsea Team News

Chelsea have two concerns for the match. Mateo Kovacic is expected to either miss out or be a substitute at best after a hamstring complaint. Antonio Rudiger has a facial injury and missed the Fulham win but is expected to play in a protective mask.

Tuchel is expected to recall captain Cesar Azpilicueta at right wingback with Andreas Christensen’s form in the back three making him impossible to leave out. Reece James will be on the bench it that case. In attack, Timo Werner and Mason Mount are shoe-ins so it’s either Christian Pulisic, who scored and was fouled 12 times in the first leg, or Kai Havertz to complete the front three. The latter got a brace against Fulham and may just get the nod for his extra height in defending set plays.

Chelsea Motivation

Motivation in the squad to make the final is massive. Many of these players have limited previous Champions League experience and are desperate to lift the trophy. Both Tuchel and Thiago Silva will want to make up for losing last season’s final.

Chelsea know that a clean sheet takes them through so a defence-first approach is expected. They will try to nick a goal and hope that draws Madrid out to free space for Werner on the counter attack.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid are 19 matches unbeaten. They have won 12 of those but have drawn four of their last six matches with only Chelsea breaching their defence. This long run without defeat has seen 3-1 wins against Liverpool at home and also a 2-1 victory against Barcelona.

Those consecutive wins were followed by the six match run where they’ve won just twice and failed to score in three of those matches. On Saturday, they beat Osasuna 2-0 as Eder Militao and Casemiro scored in the second half

Real Madrid Team News

Real Madrid have Sergio Ramos and Ferland Mendy training on Sunday but both did individual work. It’s not clear if either will start but Mendy is perhaps more likely due to the issues at left back in the first leg. Marcelo is expected to join the team late as he has been chosen for polling duty in Madrid.

Ramos is only expected to start if Raphael Varane is out. He went off at half-time against Osasuna and is due to have a scan on Monday. He should be fit to play.  Fede Valverde is waiting for another negative COVID-19 test to see if he will be available.

The big choice for Zidane is a back three of back four. The latter may be used to allow Eden Hazard or Marco Asensio a starting place in a front three. Toni Kroos and Luka Modric were both rested over the weekend but will be fit and fresh to start.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid are likely to stick with how they played in the second half in the first leg: keeping three midfielders deep and rotating possession in deeper areas to prevent counter attacks and to try draw Chelsea out. Zidane’s team really didn’t create much in the home leg and know if they fail to score for the fourth time in seven matches, they will be eliminated.

Conceding a goal will force Madrid to try to score once for extra time or twice to progress and that could expose them to counter attacks so a patient and fairly defensive approach is likely.

Key Stats

Chelsea have kept 17 clean sheets in their last 23 matches

Chelsea have lost 2 of their last 23 matches in all competitions (16 wins, 5 draws)

Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 17 of their last 19 matches in all competitions

Madrid are 19 matches unbeaten in all competitions (13 wins, 6 draws)

Madrid have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches

Madrid have failed to score in 3 of their last 6 matches

Madrid have scored 1 goal in their last 3 away CL matches

Prediction

This should be a cagey and fascinating match. Chelsea are capable of keeping the clean sheet needed to progress and have stopped several top teams from scoring under Tuchel. Zidane’s side are lacking a bit of cutting edge right now and most of their threat against Osasuna came from Eder Militao on set plays.