Real Madrid v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Real Madrid face Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League semi-final first leg as Florentino Perez, president of Los Blancos, takes on the first club to withdraw from the European Super League that was is his brainchild. That has added some needle to this tie – the first meeting between these sides since Chelsea won the 1997 UEFA Super Cup against Los Blancos. Chelsea beat Real’s city rivals, Atletico Madrid in a previous round whilst Madrid beat Premier League side, Liverpool in the quarter-finals.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid are on a 17 match unbeaten run going back to February. They’ve won 12 and drawn five of those matches. Three of their stalemates have come in their last four matches as they drew 0-0 on three occasions – in the Champions League quarter-final second leg at Liverpool, away at Getafe and at home against Real Betis in their most recent match.

Their undefeated run has seen some very impressive results including beating Liverpool 3-1 and Barcelona 2-1 at home. The last four matches have seen four clean sheets.

Real Madrid Team News

Los Blancos are still expected to be without Sergio Ramos after injury and COVID-19 but Dani Carvajal is fit again to play at right back or right wingback, depending on whether Zinedine Zidane plays a back four or back three.

Nacho is set to start, whether it’s at left back in a four, or at centre back in a three with Marcelo at left back wingback. Ferland Mendy has a muscle problem and misses the first leg against his cousin, Edouard Mendy. Toni Kroos is doubtful in midfield but should return after two matches out.
Eden Hazard is back after injury and will likely feature as a substitute with Vinicius Jnr and Marco Asensio vying to partner Karim Benzema, or playing either side of him in a front three.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid will play in a similar way to how they did against Liverpool – they will have three deeper midfielders to try to control proceedings with Karim Benzema dropping deep to dominate the midfield area.

Zidane will be wary of Chelsea on the counter attack and conceding any away goals so a relatively conservative approach is expected. A clean sheet with a goal and therefore 1-0 would be ideal as it would put enormous pressure on The Blues not to concede in the second leg. For that reason, the French coach could match up to Chelsea and use a 3-5-2 shape for the extra solidity.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea have been very good since Thomas Tuchel took over with a solid defense being the basis of his tactics. Recent weeks have seen some surprising results with a 5-2 home defeat to West Brom (with ten men), a 1-0 loss to Porto and a 0-0 draw with Brighton.

The Blues have always beaten Tottenham, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Porto and Man City by 1-0 scorelines away from Stamford Bridge since the German arrived and they will have Real Madrid in their sights. Their most recent match was a 1-0 victory at West Ham with the side scoring just twice in their last four games.

Chelsea Team News

Chelsea have only one injury to contend with as Mateo Kovacic is doubtful. Thomas Tuchel is expected to recall Reece James at right wingback with Cesar Azpilicueta reverting to a central defensive role.

The attack is expected to be made up of Mason Mount, Timo Werner plus one. Hakim Ziyech is perhaps the favourite after scoring in the FA Cup semi-final against Man City but Christian Pulisic is pushing hard too.

Chelsea Motivation

Chelsea are certain to set up with a lot of men behind the ball in a back five with two holding midfielders in front. Tuchel will play for a clean sheet and hope to nick a goal at some point as Chelsea do in most matches and certainly did against both Atletico Madrid and Porto in previous rounds.

A 1-1 draw would be an excellent result so expect extra defensive players to be introduced in the second half if Chelsea have a score draw to hang onto.

Key Stats

Madrid are 17 matches unbeaten in all competitions (12 wins, 5 draws)

Real Madrid have kept 4 clean sheets in a row

Los Blancos have won 5 of their last 6 home matches (D1)

Real Madrid have won their last 4 home CL matches

Chelsea have kept 16 clean sheets in their last 21 matches

Chelsea have lost 2 of their last 21 matches in all competitions (14 wins, 5 draws)

Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 15 of their last 17 matches in all competitions

Prediction

This looks certain to be a very tight match. Madrid won’t want to concede an away goal and Chelsea are low scoring and very conservative under Thomas Tuchel. A 1-0 victory for Zidane’s side or a low scoring draw (0-0 or 1-1) are the most likely outcomes.