UFC 305: Du Plessis v Adesanya Predictions

It’s a grudge match for the ages as South Africa’s Dricus du Plessis defends the middleweight title against former two-time 185-pound king Israel Adesanya in the main event of UFC 305 at the RAC Arena in Perth on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Some of Oceania’s finest fighters feature on the main card. Adesanya will represent Nigeria and New Zealand, Kiwis Kai Kara-France and Dan Hooker will also be in action as will Australia’s own Steve Erceg and Tai Tuivasa.

Elite flyweights Kara-France and Erceg will face off in the co-main event, while Hooker meets fellow top 15 lightweight Mateusz Gamrot in the featured bout.

Meanwhile, Tuivasa takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a clash of ranked heavyweights and Li Jingliang clashes with Carlos Prates at welterweight.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday morning SA time):

Dricus du Plessis (1.90) v Israel Adesanya (1.90) (Middleweight Championship)

It’s the biggest fight of all time in African mixed martial arts and one of the biggest blockbuster title fights in UFC middleweight history.

Du Plessis makes the first defence of his 185-pound crown, which he won in January via split decision in a five-round war against Sean Strickland – the man who’d shockingly dethroned Adesanya last September – against “The Last Stylebender”, his heated rival and one of the greatest fighters to ever step foot inside the Octagon.

The baddest man in Mzanzi and Nigerian-born Adesanya have been circling one another like apex predators for the past few years. The bad blood between stem stems from Du Plessis’ remarks in 2020 that he’d become “the first real African champion.”

The comment rubbed Adesanya the wrong way, the kickboxing savant seeing it as disrespect to other UFC African champions like himself. At the time, the UFC had three African-born champions in Cameroon’s Francis Ngannou, who reigned at heavyweight, and the Nigerian-born duo of Adesanya and Kamaru Usman, the latter of whom held the welterweight title.

Du Plessis clarified that he meant he’d become the first fighter born and based in Africa to win UFC gold, given that the aforementioned trio had resided and trained in Paris, New Zealand and America respectively. The clarification did little to lower Adesanya’s aggression meter and words almost gave way to action when they came face to face after Du Plessis’ TKO win over former champion Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 last July.

Adesanya was the king of the middleweights at the time but with Du Plessis picking up a foot injury during the bout, the title match they’d hyped had to be put on the backburner. The fight instead went to unfiltered American Strickland, who caused one of the biggest upsets in UFC history as he defeated Adesanya by decision.

Adesanya has been out of action since that shock loss at UFC 293 in Sydney, taking time to recuperate and rebuild after a super busy schedule as champion. With the roles now reversed with Du Plessis as the reigning king, Adesanya returns looking bigger than ever with a score to settle and history on his mind as he aims to become the first-ever three-time middleweight champion.

The middleweight king has never struggled to get a finish 💥 makes his first title defense Saturday night at !

— UFC (@ufc)

Drama aside, this is an excellent, uber-intriguing fight and a historic one at that as it’s the first time two African-born fighters will battle it out for a UFC title.

Du Plessis is a bona fide beast. The fighting pride of South Africa is a prodigious pugilist, a powerful and explosive seek-and-destroy fighter who’s only gone to a decision twice in his 23-fight career.

His record stands at 21-2 with nine knockouts and 10 submissions, a remarkable finishing rate that earned him the nickname “Stillknocks” and titles wherever he’s gone, from becoming the South African-based EFC’s first two-division champion (welterweight and middleweight) to putting himself on the global map by winning Poland-based promotion KSW’s welterweight championship in 2018 before capturing the crown jewel, the UFC middleweight championship, in January.  

The most gifted and well-rounded mixed martial artist South Africa’s ever produced, many forget he has a decorated kickboxing past in his own right as South Africa’s first-ever WAKO K-1 world champion, a feat he achieved as a teenager back in 2012.

Therefore, he’s far from being a bull to Adesanya’s matador, although, the latter’s kickboxing is admittedly on a completely different level than Du Plessis’. Simply put, “The Last Stylebender” is one of the most sophisticated strikers in UFC history.

Equipped with an Einstein-esque fight IQ, the tall and rangy City Kickboxing superstar is a sniper at range and a master at setting traps on the feet. His record stands at 24-3 with 16 knockouts, including the 2023 KO of the Year against long-time rival and current light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira.

Some key stats for each fighter: Du Plessis’ seven-fight win streak in the UFC is the longest active purple patch in the middleweight division. The Team CIT ace’s 6.49 significant strikes per minute is the highest in middleweight history, while his 51.6% takedown accuracy is the third highest among active middleweights.

As for Adesanya, his eight title fight wins are the second-most in middleweight history, his eight performance bonuses are the third-most in middleweight history and his 13 knockouts inside the Octagon are the joint-most in middleweight history.

Breaking things down, Du Plessis is the more well-rounded fighter and one of the best grapplers Adesanya has faced. He does offer openings on the feet but has great blitzes and concussive power, which, along with the threat of the takedown, could see him land an overhand right or the straight he blasted Trevin Giles with.

The Welkom-born warrior’s offbeat rhythm and forward pressure will cause Adesanya problems and take him time to adjust to but the key for DDP is to make it messy to not allow his decorated foe to get into his rhythm. Du Plessis does leave himself open to counters and Adesanya has the speed, footwork, technique, timing and a four-inch reach advantage to do damage. He also has good takedown defence and has to use that along with his intelligence, experience and range to score points and deter Du Plessis from trying to close the distance.

This is truly a fascinating stylistic fight that could play out in a multitude of ways. Du Plessis has the power and awkwardness to score a knockout, the strength and grappling to become the first man to submit “Izzy” and the stamina to win a decision. Adesanya, in turn, has the precision striking to counter Du Plessis and finish him or use his vast arsenal and technical proficiency to win on points.

With that in mind, I’m going for an outright rather than a prop bet on our boytjie – who’ll be walked to the Octagon by Springbok captain Siya Kolisi and lock Eben Etzebeth – to retain his title.

Kai Kara-France (2.36) v Steve Erceg (1.61) (Flyweight)

New Zealand and Australia have a rich sporting rivalry, particularly on the rugby and cricket pitches, and that will extend into mixed martial arts and the Octagon in the co-main event. 

Fourth-ranked Kiwi Kara-France (24-11), one of Adesanya’s teammates, makes his return after over a year on the sidelines due to injury looking to snap a two-fight losing streak and spoil his Aussie adversary’s homecoming.

He’s a nippy striker with finishing ability on the feet and the ground. “Don’t Blink” is a ball of energy and his wild style earned him a shot at the interim title in 2022. However, that’s as far as he’s got as he was stopped by Brandon Moreno and then lost a decision to Amir Albazi last June.

Seventh-ranked Erceg (12-2), meanwhile, took flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja to the limit in May, succumbing to the Brazilian by decision, and seeks to earn a second crack at the belt with a big win on home soil.  

“Astro Boy” is a cerebral striker and high-level grappler. Tall and rangy, his pressure, pace and precision are tough to deal with. Aside from his technical abilities, his superior fight IQ should see him get off on Kara-France and avoid being caught with something serious in scrambling situations to prevail in front of his home crowd. 

Mateusz Gamrot (1.29) v Dan Hooker (3.70) (Lightweight)

Top-15 lightweights will let loose in the featured bout.

Fifth-ranked Gamrot (24-2) is a nightmare to deal with. He’s not the most feared fighter at 155 pounds but his world-class wrestling and endless gas tank make him a grinder that appears more machine than he does man.

The prolific Pole is on a three-fight win streak, those victories coming against Jalin Turner, Rafael Fiziev and former champion Rafael dos Anjos, and is 7-2 overall in the UFC. He would’ve preferred to fight someone above him in the rankings but is confident that he can turn back 11th-ranked Hooker (23-12) in the meantime.

Another of Adesanya’s teammates coming off a long injury-enforced layoff, Hooker is exceptionally tall and rangy for a lightweight, which along with his kickboxing prowess, decade-long tenure in the UFC and fearless nature, make him a tough out for anyone in the division.

“The Hangman” hasn’t fought since he beat Turner in a fire-fight at UFC 290 in which he suffered a broken arm and soldiered on last July. The New Zealander is truly as tough as they come and will be determined to use his four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage to pull off the upset.

With their takedown-heavy approach, Gamrot’s team know they have to look out for knees down the middle and “Gamer” has the requisite skill and experience to consistently sidestep danger, ground and control Hooker to continue his winning ways. 

Tai Tuivasa (2.80) v Jairzinho Rozenstruik (1.45) (Heavyweight)

The loudest pop from the Australian crowd will be reserved for hometown heavyweight slugger Tuivasa (14-7).

An entertainer from the moment he makes the walk to the Octagon, “Bam Bam” fancies comical entrance songs, including once coming out to a Spice Girls tune, throws caution to the wind and has a trademark shoey celebration.

An old-school brawler and knockout artist, he has big wins over the likes of Stefan Struve and former title challenger Derrick Lewis but has lost his last four on the trot, two by knockout and two by submission, to slide to No. 10 in the rankings.

Rozenstruik (14-5) is a knockout artist in his own right, matching Tuivasa with 13 KO wins. However, he’s the polar opposite of the Aussie ace in terms of approach and skill as he’s all business and highly technical. Coming from a kickboxing background, the 12th-ranked Suriname standout is methodical and has a vast array of weapons on the feet.

Superior technique doesn’t always win fights at heavyweight, where a single shot can finish things, so there’s value in backing Tuivasa. That being said, “Bigi Boy” has an added three-inch reach advantage and will know he only needs to weather the early storm to leave victorious, which is what I see him doing, much to the crowd’s displeasure.  

  

 

Li Jingliang (3.95) v Carlos Prates (1.27) (Welterweight)

The main card opener marks the return of Li (19-8). A veteran who despite never breaking into the upper echelons of the 170-pound division made some waves, he’s hell-bent on recapturing some of the success of his glory days.

A solid fighter with heavy hands and strong grappling, “The Leech” was last seen in a losing effort against Daniel Rodriguez almost two years ago. Having battled injuries since then, he’s finally fit and makes his comeback at the age of 36.

During Li’s time on the shelf, Prates (19-6) burst onto the UFC scene and is 2-0 inside the Octagon. The Brazilian southpaw is super explosive and on a nine-fight win streak, the last eight of which have come by stoppage. 

All told, the 30-year-old’s speed, momentum and whopping six-and-a-half-inch reach advantage should see him live up to his “Nightmare” nickname.