Market Analysis
Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 29/09/25
Monday 29 September
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | 
|
Money Supply M4 | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||
| 10:00 | 
|
Business Climate |
|
-0.72 | -0.76 | |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Sentiment |
|
-10.3 | -10.9 | -10.3 |
| 10:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
-14.9 | -14.9 | -14.9 |
| 10:00 |
|
Economic Sentiment |
|
95.2 | 95.2 | 95.5 |
| 10:00 |
|
Services Sentiment |
|
3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| 13:00 | 
|
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.00% | ||
| 13:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) |
|
1.80% | ||
| 15:00 | 
|
Pending Home Sales Month on Month |
|
-0.4% | 0.2% | +4.0% |
Tuesday 30 September
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:50 | 
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
0.3% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 00:50 |
|
Industrial Production Prelim | -1.2% | -0.8% | -1.2% | |
| 02:30 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing (China) |
|
49.4 | 49.6 | 49.8 |
| 05:30 | 
|
RBA Cash Rate |
|
3.60% | 3.60% | |
| 07:00 | 
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
1.9% | 1.8% | +1.8% |
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Final Year on Year | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Final Quarter on Quarter |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 07:00 |
|
Current Account |
|
-23.456Bln GB | -24.950Bln GB | -28.939Bln GB |
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-1.5% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
| 07:45 | 
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.4% | -0.2% | |
| 08:55 |
|
Unemployment Change (sa) |
|
-7k | 8k | 14k |
| 08:55 |
|
Unemployment Rate (sa) |
|
6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 09:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
1.6% | 0.2% | |
| 09:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.5% | -0.6% | |
| 13:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.00% | ||
| 13:00 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) |
|
1.80% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
97.4 | 96.0 | 94.2 |
Wednesday 01 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:50 |
|
Tankan Big Manufacturers Index |
|
13 | 15 | 14 |
| 00:50 |
|
Tankan Big Non-Manufacturers Index |
|
34 | 34 | 34 |
| 01:30 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 48.4 | 48.5 | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 08:45 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 50.4 | 50.0 | 49.0 | |
| 08:50 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 48.1 | 48.1 | 48.2 | |
| 08:55 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 48.5 | 48.5 | 49.5 | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 49.5 | 49.5 | 49.8 | |
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 46.2 | 46.2 | 46.2 | |
| 13:15 |
|
ADP employment report |
|
54k | 50k | -32k |
| 13:30 |
|
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
22k | 50k | |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Average Earnings |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14:30 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 48.3 | 47.7 | ||
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
48.7 | 49.0 | 49.1 |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -0.607Mln | 1.048Mln | 1.792Mln |
Thursday 02 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
34.9 | 35.3 | |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
2.2% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.5% | ||
| 09:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% |
| 13:30 |
|
Weekly Jobless Claims |
|
218k | 223k | |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Average Earnings |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
22k | 50k | |
| 15:00 |
|
Factory Orders |
|
-1.3% | 1.4% |
Friday 03 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.5% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
2.2% | ||
| 08:45 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | -1.1% | 0.2% | -0.7% | |
| 08:45 |
|
PMI Services | 51.5 | 51.5 | 52.5 | |
| 08:50 |
|
PMI Services | 48.9 | 48.9 | 48.5 | |
| 08:55 |
|
PMI Services | 52.5 | 52.5 | 51.5 | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Services | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51.3 | |
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) |
|
1.80% | +0.5% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.00% | -0.1% | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Composite | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.2 | |
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Services | 51.9 | 51.9 | 50.8 | |
| 11:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
0.2% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 11:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.4% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| 13:30 |
|
Average Earnings |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Weekly Jobless Claims |
|
218k | 223k | |
| 13:30 |
|
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
22k | 50k | |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders |
|
56.0 | 50.4 | |
| 15:00 |
|
Factory Orders |
|
-1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment |
|
46.5 | 47.2 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity |
|
55.0 | 51.8 | 49.9 |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid |
|
69.2 | 69.4 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
52.0 | 51.7 | 50.0 |
Monday 06 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
2.2% | ||
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-0.5% | 0.1% |
Tuesday 07 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 |
|
Consumer Sentiment |
|
-3.1% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index UK (Halifax) |
|
0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 07:45 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-5.560Bln EU | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-78.3Bln US | -60.4Bln US | |
| 13:30 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-4.94Bln CA | -5.55Bln CA |
Wednesday 08 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | 
|
RBNZ Rate Decision |
|
3.00% | 2.75% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
1.3% | -1.0% | |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 1.792Mln |
Thursday 09 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
14.7Bln EU | 15.2Bln EU |
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